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10,000 Monte Carlo simulations • 12-month horizon • USD
This report analyzes the 12-month cash-flow outlook for an early-stage SaaS startup using 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. All figures are in USD.
| Scenario | Leads | Conv% | ARPA | Fixed Opex | MRR | Ending Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 400 | 20% | $90 | $48,000 | $28,000 | –$40,000 |
| Base | 600 | 27% | $120 | $40,000 | $44,000 | $90,000 |
| Aggressive | 850 | 32% | $170 | $42,000 | $70,000 | $260,000 |
To reduce cash shortfall probability to under 5%, the startup should hold approximately $200k–$250k in buffer capital. The most important levers are leads, conversion, and ARPA.